Looking forward to!The spring breeze of market recovery has come at last
Looking forward to!The spring breeze of market warming has finally come!Yesterday, the central bank financial data released, detonated the financial circle, January credit lending growth achieved a “good start”.In the same month, RMB loans increased by 3.98 trillion yuan, the highest in a single month and 394.4 billion yuan more than last year.The increase in social finance reached 6.17 trillion yuan, surpassing market expectations and 984.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year, also hitting a record high in a single month.Meanwhile, the growth rate of broad money supply (M2) increased by 9.8 percent year on year in January, up by 0.8 percentage points from the end of last month and up sharply from 9.0 percent at the end of last year.This set of data was taken by the market as a spring in the stock market.What does that mean? Let’s take a look.First of all, the new club 6.17 trillion yuan, the sad old qi unexpectedly, two days before the funds and I circle of friends to dinner, we also agreed that social harmony may be lower than expected in January, I’m afraid a little more than 5 trillion, the economy may be is still a serious lack of demand, but didn’t expect that the data is released, significantly higher than market expectations,This creates very strong expectations differentials.Expect strong reaction on today’s board.The scale of social financing has always been regarded as a leading indicator of the economy, and it is also where all economic individuals have confidence in the economy. The substantial increase in social financing is obviously a significant increase in economic demand.This shows that a series of policies we adopted to stabilize the economy and maintain steady growth are beginning to have an effect.Moreover, short-term loans are better than long-term loans, and enterprises are better than residents. All these are the results we really want to achieve. Long-term household debts represent real estate, which is a means to stimulate the economy that we do not want to use.On the contrary, stimulating enterprises is what we are pursuing. This time, the new medium – and long-term corporate loans increased by 2.1 trillion yuan, the first year-on-year increase since July 2021. Corporate bonds and special bonds also increased significantly, largely channelled into infrastructure and some large projects.Third, the M2 growth is more, 9.8% again close to 10%, belong to clearly peatlands, mainly is because the fiscal expenditure increased significantly, and increase credit, these all increased the market for the currency, but the M1 to drop, mainly related to the Spring Festival factor, some production and investment activities are temporarily interrupted, found a short-term monetary income place to celebrate the Spring Festival.So activation has decreased, but it is expected that M1 will rebound quickly after the Spring Festival.Taken together, the financial data tells us that the central bank has mingpai in steady growth, and aggressive, in the report, also specially added, this is a high monthly statistics, also tell you 1 month credit, central mother’s mood has been very clear, that is afraid you don’t understand, read not to come out, so just tell you, my economic stimulus policies,It has produced obvious results. Don’t worry, I will continue to grow steadily.And this year’s policy is very clear intention, is to jump the gun, at the beginning of the year, as soon as possible to pull the economy out of the mire at the end of the year.But The February data is also crucial, and the January opening data can sometimes be volatile.Verification is required with February data.Central banks usually stimulate the economy in two steps. The first step is to release money to the banking system, which is called monetary easing, and then the second step is for the banks to release money to other parts of the economy, which is called credit easing.Most central Banks hold is the first step, through the first step to promote the occurrence of the second step, in the end of last year, the central bank policy shift obviously, our 10-year bond yields began to decline obviously, from more than 3%, once dropped below 2.7% of the end of January, shows that the central bank has been to inject liquidity into the banking system, station troops in the banking system, and Banks to lend,In February, the ten-bond interest rate began to rebound. There are two possibilities: one is that the central bank withdrew liquidity; the other is that the demand of the real economy increased, leading to a decrease in inter-bank funds.Judging from yesterday’s financial report, it is clear that it is not the central bank withdrawing liquidity, but the demand in the real economy has increased. That is to say, the second step of credit easing is being realized, and the whole monetary transmission chain is smooth.To put it more simply, the outlet pipe has now been opened, so the inlet pipe is better controlled, and when the water level drops faster, the inlet pipe can give more force.So the best outcome this year is a broad credit, broad money cycle, and the worst outcome is also a broad credit and money neutral cycle.Tight money is unlikely.As long as the credit is loose, not half a year, will be reflected in the stock market.Historically, the stock market does not perform badly as long as social finance picks up. This year is actually much like 2016 and 2019. The year starts with big turbulence, economic downturn and recession have been deeply rooted in people’s minds, and market confidence has fallen to the freezing point.The index will perform well for the whole year, even for two years in a row.Last word stock market, at the end of last year in fact we have been in planet jun-jie qi fan base knowledge, said the market there is the risk of mud and sand flow together, but the next crouching, mud and sand flow together is in order to jump, also remind you that this year the market structure and last year will be completely different, high cyclical industries, including new energy, chips, medicine, military industry all want to avoid.On the contrary, banks, insurance, general concept, infrastructure can be assured of bold investment.This year several major indexes, the certainty of opportunity is 300 index, greater than 500 index, greater than gem, now basically have been fulfilled, obedient now are hiding in the value, see the growth slump, the mentality is very good, but if you did not listen, did not act in advance, now has been deeply set among them, this time also don’t move.After the social integration, from the bottom of the market is not far.After such emotional catharsis, some industries, you can go to fill some positions.In the fans of Qi Junjie of Knowledge Planet, we will timely give some signals in the market, especially in the evening class. We will also give specific countermeasures and analyze the industries in detail. During the fall at the beginning of the year, many industries have fallen by 20%, csi 300 by 6% and GEM by 15%.The biggest pullback of our portfolio is only 5%, and most of them are within 3%.